Many people claim that bookmakers’ odds, being configured to exceed 100%, are unfair; to an extent, this is true. Consequently, they ask, how is it possible for a punter to ever win? It has been shown that up to 95% of gamblers at online sports betting sites fail to win at fixed odds sports betting over the long term. Most bookmakers, particularly those at established online betting sites, are professionals in their field, and are very good at setting prices in their favour.

To begin value betting, one must first acquire a deep knowledge and understand of the sport on which they are betting. Once able and confident in giving a percentage chance of a team winning, you may begin the value betting process.

Firstly, we begin with the tale of Slovenian ski jumper Primoz Peterka, double world champion at his sport in previous seasons and first in qualifying in an event of the 2002-03 season at Kuusamo, Finland. UK online betting site William Hill offered the astonishing odds of 200/1 for Peterka, while most experts rated him a 10/1 chance to win. Any value better at the time with a sound knowledge of ski jumping would have pounced on William Hill’s extraordinary odds – all other sites had him priced reasonably – and, as fate would have it, Peterka took out the title. William Hill ceased offering odds for the ski jumping World Cup thereafter. It is rare for these professional bookmakers to make such a glaring error, but one can benefit from smaller slips.

If you believe Newcastle, for example, have a 70% chance of defeating Fulham, and Fulham only a 15% chance, you may be in accordance with the bookmaker. What you are effectively saying is that if the match is played out 100 times, Newcastle will win 70, and Fulham 15, with 15 draws. ‘Your’ odds are 1.43 for Newcastle and 6.67 for Fulham (calculated by 100/70, 100/15), yet the bookmaker is offering 4/11 (1.36) and 13/2 (7.50). By your reckoning, betting on Newcastle would, in time, lose money, while Fulham represent value.

Always remember that odds are only probabilities, and can be represented a number of ways. Finding value in a bet established a sure edge over the bookmaker, and eventually a good result will prevail – and it does not necessarily involve betting on the underdog as in the example above. As renowned betting advisor Geoff Harvey writes, “Find the value, (and) the winners will take care of themselves.”

This betting system requires persistence and faith in one’s judgment – but with time will move an astute punter into the upper five percent echelon of sports gamblers.